The Seattle Mariners: Into Darkness

The Mariners season has consisted of equal parts of the good, the bad and the ugly. Well, maybe not equal, but fans have certainly witnessed a bit of each.  After a rough first month that saw the team sink to a familiar 9-16, veterans Jason Bay, Mike Morse and Raul Ibanez helped stabilize the season by pulling the team back to 20-21 and second place in the AL West. For the first time in years the team possessed an experienced backbone, relieving much of the pressure hanging over the youngsters. They didn’t need to be saviors, just contributors. The veterans could hold the fort while the high-end prospects came into their own. Sounds like a plan right?

Batting averagesUnfortunately, the evidence suggests that the young players have regressed sharply. Jesus Montero opened the season throwing 0-15 baserunners out and had significant holes in his swing that were regularly being exploited by opposing pitchers. Dustin Ackley was constantly down two strikes at the plate and was not leveraging his speed on the basepaths. Justin Smoak’s value as a switch hitter was minimized because he wasn’t hitting from either side and lacked anything that approximated power. Rookie pitcher Brandon Maurer was taking the team out of games early by getting lit up by major league hitters.

The weight of these underperformances finally became too much to bear and Montero, Ackley and Maurer were all sent to AAA Tacoma to work themselves out. Painfully, the next wave of prospects (Nick Franklin and Carlos Triunfel) were promoted to the big club, leaving many to wonder if Seattle has whiffed on an entire cohort of players. As part of the ugly sideshow, Eric Wedge conducted a series of interviews where he appeared to lash out at the fans, the media and sabermetrics in general as contributing to the struggles of his players. Not surprisingly, the calls for heads to roll have become louder and now include Wedge, GM Jack Zduriencik, front office fixtures Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong and the Mariner Moose.

An interesting point that has been lost in all of the noise was Wedge’s call to stay the course, “You just can’t keep changing. They did that here for a lot of years — didn’t work. You gotta stick with the program”

Fans want change and immediate results. Good teams compete while implementing a consistent philosophy that provides continuity. An interesting idea that has been making the rounds in Seattle is that only one manager has lasted through four years for the Mariners, Sweet Lou Pinella. And it’s true, the likes of Dick Williams, Mike Hargrove, Don Wakamastu and Jim Lefebvre were all out after less than four years. However, another commonality is that none of them had winning percentages above .500. So, the question is, do good teams keep their managers, thus providing continuity, or are good managers kept because they win? A quick look at the tenure of MLB managers this year shows us that most managers have been hired very recently with a smaller number retained for five or more years. Among the teams that have long-serving managers are the Twins, Angels, Phillies, Rays, Tigers, Rangers, Giants, Padres, Yankees and Reds. Padres notwithstanding, these are all teams that have experienced recent success.

MLB managers

So, regardless of causality or the specifics of this Seattle team, history suggests that third year manager Eric Wedge needs to get this team winning if he hopes to make it to year five.

Into Darkness

The future of the Mariners has not looked this uncertain for some time. Although the minor league system is stocked, translating such talent into MLB success is anything but assured. Positive examples exist, such as the Tampa Rays, who have used their farm system to maintain a competitive major league club for many years. On the other hand, two years ago the top two farm systems were the Kansas City Royals and the Toronto Jays. Today, both teams sit in last place in their divisions (winning % = 0.420 and 0.434 respectively), even though they got there through widely divergent paths.

KC took a slow approach, pairing their young core of Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas with a veteran starting rotation secured by trading some of their prospects. Toronto went a different route, using most of their prospects to trade for veterans R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson. Both teams have struck out thus far and serve as a warning for Seattle fans that minor league strength alone is insufficient to guarantee success.

Although it is clear that many of Seattle’s prospects are struggling, we don’t know if this is due to poor talent evaluation, player development or a combination of both. What is more important is predicting whether these are minor bumps for young players or early indications that they may never fulfill those lofty expectations.

Let’s start with Dustin Ackley, the second overall pick who was widely regarded as the best hitting prospect in his year. With a record of success in college, Ackley moved to second base and shot (perhaps too quickly) through the minor league system. Since arriving in Seattle, Ackley has played a solid second base, but has regressed as a hitter. A quick look around the league shows that the elite second basemen (Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Howie Kendrick) experienced early success at the plate, usually within the first two years of reaching the majors. The player who most closely mirrors Ackley’s career thus far is Gordon Beckham of the Chicago White Sox (that’s the sound of a thousand Mariners fans poking their left eye out). Drafted high in the first round, both Beckham and Ackley batted .270 in their first seasons followed by regression over their next few. Ackley’s future now depends somewhat on the performance of Nick Franklin, who just hit two home runs in his fourth game with the Mariners. A move to the outfield could be possible before he returns to Seattle.

Justin Smoak was a highly regarded, switch-hitting prospect at first base. Since arriving in Seattle, Smoak has performed well defensively and has shown a remarkable eye at the plate. However, his situational hitting has remained inconsistent and this year his power seems lost. Smoak is somewhat older and so time is clearly running out for him to make an impact. Top first basemen Joey Votto, Mark Trumbo, Adrian Gonzalez all produced results early in their careers. Even younger prospects like Anthony Rizzo (23), Paul Goldschmidt (25), and Freddie Freeman (23) are showing more progress than Smoak (26). The one player that Seattle fans can look to is Chris Davis, who took several years before finally becoming an impact first baseman.

Finally, Jesus Montero is the onetime catcher of the future who has struggled to, well catch (that’s the sound of a thousand Mariners fans poking out their other eye). With remarkably slow feet, Montero has demonstrated a limited ability to hold runners or stretch out hits. Behind the plate, Montero appears to struggle receiving, specifically framing pitches. On offense, Montero has flashed power, especially to right-center which makes him ideal for Safeco Field. However, hitting a curveball has been increasingly problematic and in 2013 he is hitting a weak .119 on curveballs

Although some elite catchers (i.e., Buster Posey, Salvador Perez, Joe Mauer) are seemingly hatched to succeed at the position, others have taken more time to develop. Many good catchers were inconsistent at the plate in their first three years, with wide variation in their batting averages (Matt Wieters, .249 to .288; Yadier Molina .216 to .267; Carlos Santana .239 to .260). Montero is the youngest of the Marines prospects at 23 years and so it is far too soon to close the book on his career, though his catching days may be finished.

Once returned to AAA, the prospects helped the Tacoma Rainiers to a 25 run outburst. These players may have underperformed for the Mariners, but they are clearly close. They all hit in spring training and in AAA, now the tough question is how to translate this into success to Safeco Field. Are these the Mariners of the future or do they give way to the next wave of prospects? Will Wedge and Jack be here to see the rebuild through, or will there be a regime change in 2013?

Read also: Mariners in extra innings: A bit of everything

Comments

comments

Posted in Baseball, News | Tagged | 3 Comments

The Mountain West, PAC-12 and perceptions in the NCAA tournament

No conference has more on the line in this year’s NCAA tournament than the Mountain West Conference. With a number of teams making the big show, there are grumblings that the MWC is getting seeded higher than deserved.

Much of the criticism centers on the fact that some teams in the Mountain West have scheduled games against division II teams, which does not affect their RPI’s, and thus their ranking. In the end, these teams still have to beat good teams, but their RPI boost may contribute to securing higher seeds in the tournament. What’s most intriguing is that these teams are not well covered by the national media, so it is unclear what type of respect the conference merits.

Against this backdrop, all eyes are on the MWC teams. If they don’t live up to their rankings, future selection committees may remember. The stunning losses for UNLV (5) and New Mexico (3) this week have certainly hurt the conference, but a deep run by the likes of San Diego could even things out. .

All of this talk brings up an old analysis (see: Things we already knew about the NCAA tournament) of first round winning percentages from a couple of years ago. I thought I would update that analysis to see how perception and performance differ in the tournament. First, I calculate “perceived” conference strength”, which combines the number of teams from each conference in the tournament and the seeding of each of those teams. Then, I related those weightings to first round winning percentages. As I stated last time, this is obviously a limited approach, but still fun to look at. Conferences that have elite teams that make deep runs aren’t accounted for here. So here is the data from 2010-2013.

NCAA

From 2010-2013 seasons

The PAC-12 is clearly seeded lower than their performance. This is not hard to see as many of these teams have upset higher seeds in recent years. The PAC-12 has not been highly regarded for years, and was predicted to go 0 for 5 in the tournament this year.

Comments

comments

Posted in Basketball, News | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Sports analytics: Nate Silver, Jeff Ma and Daryl Morey discuss all things data

This weekend, geeks of all shapes and sizes gathered at the Boston Convention Center for the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The definition of what exactly analytics is remains a bit fuzzy, but the crowd was a mixture of analysts from the NBA/NFL/NHL/MLB/Premiere League teams, statistical consultants, eager engineering students, and a good number of business students.

Sports Analytics Conference

Michael Lewis, Mark Cuban, Nate Silver, and Daryl Morey open the Sports Analytics Conference. Revenge of the Nerds indeed!

As for the actual content delivered, the early returns were a mixed bag. On one hand, the breadth of sports covered was breathtaking. We all know that analytics has swept through the major professional sports, but who knew there was so much attention being given to tennis, triathlon, MMA, NASCAR and video games? It was very cool to see people digging into these different games, each with it’s unique set of challenges for making prediction.

On the other hand, analytics for all of these fields, including the major sports, are still in their infancy. Much of the work centered around finding simple correlations in the data, with little to no ability to address the underlying mechanisms driving the overall pattern. No new Bayesian approaches to sports analytics, though I suspect they were largely being kept under wraps. The inherent weakness with most of the analyses shown at this conference is that they only apply to a very narrow set of conditions. Faced with a new or novel set of conditions, it is unclear how well these models will hold up. That’s not a great proposition for a dynamic realm like sports.

The most interesting session was one that included Nate Silver, Jeff Ma and Daryl Morey. Silver is the statistician and author of FiveThirtyEight, rising to fame for his accurate predictions of the 2012 elections. He subsequently authored the book The Signal and the Noise. Jeff Ma used his statistical background to employ a card counting strategy that made him the subject of Bringing Down the House: The Inside Story of Six M.I.T. Students Who Took Vegas for Millions. Daryl Morey is the Houston Rockets general manager who brought an analytics approach to team management and is the founder of the analytics conference.

During the panel, Silver and Ma both emphasized the need to separate the analytics process from outcomes. Teams focusing too narrowly on outcomes over short time horizons or small sample sizes will render any analytics effort a dicey proposition. Patience and discipline to stick with the predictions of the model are required characteristics, but difficult to maintain when short-term success is so (understandably) important to most teams. Being swayed by losing streaks and short-term underperformance are powerful motivators to deviate from the plan. Unfortunately, waiting for data to provide a definitive prediction of success is a less realistic goal than using the data to understand and reduce risk. Professor of Sport Management at Menlo College, Benjamin Alamar, who was also on the panel suggested that analytics simply serve to narrow the range of noise. Successful teams must understand that analytics is a long-term strategy.

Sports Analytics Conference

Owners, the panel went on to explain, often want experts that can tell them what moves will definitively ensure that they are going to win, but analytics can’t do that. At best, they can make recommendations for strategies to shift the odds. This puts the statistician in a bind, because they are generally interacting with scouts who KNOW they are right, whereas the statistician can only talk of probabilities. Morey gave an example about how the Rockets, lacking any superstars, needed to find high-variance players. In this sense, high variance equates to high risk and the players they got could have flamed out, but gave the team a chance to improve markedly. Silver mentioned the Blue Jays under JP Riccardi made a habit of selecting low variance college players that were closer to making the majors, but lacked the potential upside of players taken out of high school. Over the long term, that strategy didn’t appear to work out all that well, especially when the competition in the AL East was loaded with high end talent.

Jeff Ma suggested that successful outcomes can be used as a measure of progress for an analytics system, but only over long time periods. An insight into the type of long-term discipline that exists was on display by Cleveland Browns president Alec Scheiner. It’s generally understood, he contends, that one does not easily give up draft picks to move up in the draft, but we also know that quarterback is one of the most valuable positions. So, a difficult choice was presented about moving up in the 2012 NFL draft to pick Robert-Griffin III. Scheiner contends that the models suggested no and that picking RG3 was, “at it’s core” the wrong pick. Even in the face of so much early success, one season was not a large enough sample to change his opinion about the pick. Scheiner suggested that it may take 5 years to properly assess the value of RGIII given the potential injury risk.

Morey and Silver then made comparisons to weather forecasters who sometimes bias their predictions towards more rain because their job incentives are asymmetrical. Miss predicting a sunny is fine, but missing a storm is held strongly against them. This, they contend, is where sports analytics can help by avoiding the big mistakes. Another interesting point was that weather forecasters often avoid predicting that the chances of rain are 50-50%, because who needs a weather forecast that appears no better than a coin flip? I wonder how often this occurs in the world of sports analytics?

So what is the real value of using computer models versus human experience and intuition? Silver contends that humans are good at pattern recognition. When the NBA came back from strike, it was clear that poor performance was related to players being rusty and out of shape. Humans understand that sort of context easily, whereas computers cannot. However, overconfidence in this very skill is also what leads to many errors in judgement. There are special cases where the models do not apply and human intuition can help, but one must always guard against calling every case special. In his review of Silver’s book, Princeton professor Sam Wang sums it up best, “Heuristics are no substitute for careful and rigorous study— – in other words, expertise”.

Ma agreed that one strength of computers is that they check bias, but that the models must not only be appropriate, but also stable over time. Morey gave an example of this, where the inability of existing models to assess the potential of ivy league players was a contributing factor in why Jeremy Lin was overlooked. To this, Silver pointed out that using analogies from other systems may help identify if there important characteristics from other environments that work.

So, how does one create a culture that appreciates process over output? Ma argues that the big shift coming is that people who hate numbers will begin to embrace the analytics approach. In this respect, effective communication is paramount. Morey’s position with the Rockets serves as a good example of the challenges that lay ahead. Even though the moves made are consistent with their analytics approach, the team has not yet won a title. The owners have continued to hold a firm belief that sound process will lead to successful outcomes.

Visual Tracking

Another theme this weekend was the rising interest in visual tracking data. For instance, Sportvision is a group that has developed it’s PitchF/X system to track pitches in 3D. The baseball tracking system can be used to analyze how effective pitchers are against hitters (see Mariano Rivera video below). The technology holds much promise as teams may track not only the flight trajectory of balls, but also the movement of body parts to improve injury prevention by picking up small changes in arm slot or delivery that my not be so obvious to the eye.

Another company, SportsVu, has adapted missile tracking technologies to track the motion of players, referees and the ball on NBA courts. The system, which consists of six cameras tracking motion at 25Hz, is currently installed in about half of the arenas in the NBA. These new spatial approaches have the potential to fundamentally change the scope of what analytics can provide. The most significant bottleneck appears to be that the expertise to understand the large amount of data produced is limited to a select pool of experts, which brings us to our next topic – Big Data.

Big Data

Another recurring theme was the need to deal with big data. The large amounts of unstructured data being generated for every player in every game will only grow as visual tracking systems become more commonplace. The question is whether there is a lot of Big Data being collected that provides very little robust insight. Teams are still struggling with the ability of systems to allow people to ask the right questions to get the information on which to make management decisions. On this front, there were many commercial demonstrations from big players that embed tools to manipulate large data sets. Since this isn’t an advertisement for those companies, suffice to say there are many tools available that come at a cost.

Communication challenges

Another challenge touched on was the need to communicate findings to decision-makers in some form of actionable information. For instance, SportsVu can produce data for teams in 60 seconds, but can that data be communicated in a manner that it is useful for making in-game decisions? The only real message here was that the onus lies on the communicator. Clear ideas, actionable information and effective visuals should be the goal for any analytics.

The disconnect between clear communication and science literacy was on full display in the Data visualization session, Marten Wattenberg of Google emphasized the need to indicate the relative error on graphs, a simple point from any science 101 class. This was followed up on the very same stage by Ben Fry of Fathom who presented a bubble-plot of Wonderlic scores for the different positions in football. The graph was clean and showed differences in scores among the different positions. However, it lacked any measure of variance, leaving the reader with no sense of whether the differences are actually meaningful. Remember, Signal and the noise!

Where were the Seattle teams?

Sadly, there were no representatives from the Seattle Seahawks, Seattle Mariners or Seattle Sounders at the conference. Maybe the Seattle statheads were too busy analyzing the effect of the proposed Sonics arena on local traffic patterns. Not surprisingly, the Patriots and 49ers had the largest NFL contingents. The Canucks and Oilers were both there, but nobody from the Calgary Flames.

NFL

MLB

SSAC13 NBA

NHL

=============================================================================================================

Read another sciencewitness.com article: King Felix plays a Game of Thrones.

Comments

comments

Posted in News | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Seattle close to relocating NBA team (Sacramento Kings)

Reports indicate that the Sacramento Kings are in negotiations with a group headed by Chris Hansen and Steve Ballmer to move the team to Seattle. Yahoo Sport’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports that the NBA’s relocation committee will ratify the motion to move the team to Seattle for the 2012-2013 season.

Surveying has begun at arena site in Seattle. Can

Surveying has begun at arena site in Seattle.

Other reports also confirms that Chris Hansen has also begun purchasing additional parcels of land in the SODO district.  It is possible that plans are being made for a new parking garage to accompany the arena.

If the team does move to Seattle for the 2013-2014 season, they will play temporarily in Key Arena for two years.  Down the road, the group may eye a new NHL team to serve as co-tenants. Read also: The NHL in Seattle: Can Key Arena provide a temporary home?

Key Arena

Key Arena in Seattle, Washington

 

 

 

Comments

comments

Posted in Basketball, News | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Concussion discussion VI. Panel on sports-related concussions in youth

Today, the Institute of Medicine and National Research Council are holding meetings to discuss study on sports-related concussions in youth. The group began a 15 month study in October and will prepare a report on sports-related concussions in youth, from elementary school through young adulthood. A goal of the meeting will be to review the science on concussions, including risk factors, long-term consequences, and the effectiveness of protective devices and equipment among other topics.

Interestingly, the group will also cover potential impacts on military personnel and their dependents. specifically, there will be a focus on concussion resulting from sports and physical training at Service academies and recruit training for military personnel between the ages of 18-21

The specific list of topics to be discussed are:

-the acute, subacute, and chronic effects of single and repetitive concussive and non-concussive head impacts on the brain;
-risk factors for sports concussion, post-concussive syndrome, and chronic traumatic encephalopathy;
-the spectrum of cognitive, affective, and behavioral alterations that can occur during acute, subacute, and chronic posttraumatic phases;
-physical and biological triggers and thresholds for injury;
-the effectiveness of equipment and sports regulations for prevention of injury;
-hospital and non-hospital based diagnostic tools; and
-treatments for sports concussion.

One of the primary deliverables for the group is to provide recommendations to specific agencies and organizations (governmental and non-governmental) on factors to consider when determining the concussive status of a player.

Comments

comments

Posted in Concussions, News | Tagged | Leave a comment

A collection of twelve “Top 10″ hockey lists (Videos)

With the NHL and NHLPA agreeing to terms, another hockey season begins. If Twitter is any indication, fans and players alike appear excited to get back on the ice.

Mikael Backlund Mikael Backlund (@mbacklund11) So excited to to fly back to Calgary and play for the @NHLFlames again. Great day for hockey. Thanks to all the patient fans. #lockoutisover

Colby Armstrong Colby Armstrong (‏@armdog) Back to MTL tomorrow to join back up with the fellas on the ice to get the chemistry fired up. Looking forward to it. #habs
Andrew Ladd Andrew Ladd ‏  (@aladd16) Ok @Bogogo_44 you can stop milking you injury now! Time to get back to playing the game we all love!So, to tide you over until the season begins, here is a collection of twelve “top 10″ hockey lists.

 

Top 10 most infamous plays

Top 10 most hated players

Top 10 creative moments

Top 10 hockey meltdowns

Top 10 hockey moments of the 2010 Olympics

Top 10 Moments When Goaltenders Leave the Net

Top ten Stanley Cup Finals moments

Top ten goal celebrations

Top 10 skilled players

Top 10 goalie gaffes

Top 10 Game 7 moments

Top 10 Wayne Gretzky moments

Read another sciencewitness.com article here: “The Wayne Gretzky analysis”

 

Comments

comments

Posted in Hockey | Leave a comment

VIDEO: Randy Johnson & Dan Wilson throw out first pitch

Randy Johnson and Dan Wilson together threw out the first pitch on Saturday when both were inducted into the Seattle Mariners Hall of Fame.

 

Comments

comments

Posted in Baseball | Tagged | Leave a comment

Randy Johnson & Dan Wilson inducted into Mariners Hall of Fame

Randy Johnson back at Safeco Field

On Saturday, Randy Johnson and Dan Wilson were inducted into the Seattle Mariners‘ Hall of Fame. The pair were featured in a video montage recounting their contributions ranging from the 1995 play-in game, Randy’s relief appearance in game 5 against the Yankees after one days rest, Wilson’s in the park home run, to both players extensive community service.

Johnson is a sure bet for the baseball Hall of Fame. Regularly topping 300 strikeouts a year, the intimidating lefty found his game as a Mariner before anchoring the Arizona Diamondbacks staff to a world series. He won a Cy Young in Seattle with a .900 winning percentage, which is the second highest of all time. Johnson also threw a no hitter in 1990 against the Tigers and struck out 18 batters in 1992 while throwing an unthinkable 160 pitches.

Dan Wilson came to the Mariners from the Cincinnati Reds to play under Lou Piniella. A defensive stalwart, Wilson’s game included an AL record 1051 putouts in 1997 while submitting a 0.9987 fielding percentage. Wilson settled in as a valuable game caller who helped develop a talented pitching staff anchored by the likes of Johnson and Jamie Moyer. In 2001, Wilson led a staff that was the engine for a record 116 wins.

Read also: VIDEO: Randy Johnson & Dan Wilson throw out first pitch

Comments

comments

Posted in Baseball, News | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Moyer, Hernandez & Hultzen embody the Mariners past, present & future.

Moyer & Hultzen

Jamie Moyer & Danny Hultzen at Cheney Stadium

While a heat wave rolled through much of the country, a perfect storm was forming on the west coast Thursday night. The Seattle Mariners past, present and future was on full display, embodied in three starting pitchers – Felix Hernandez, Jamie Moyer and Danny Hultzen.

The present: King Felix delights his “supreme” court.

Felix Hernandez submitted yet another classic performance in shutting down the resurgent Boston Red Sox 1-0 at Safeco Field Thursday night. King Felix used 128 pitches over 9 innings to record a career-high 13 strikeouts. After starting the season slowly and seeing his pitch velocity topping out between 91 and 93 mph, Hernandez has been gaining velocity every outing and is again throwing upper 90’s heat.

But even as Felix was leading the way for the Mariners (that’s not news), an equally intriguing game was being played far away from the bright lights of Safeco Field. Just 50 kms south, a minor league matchup pitted the Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners affiliate) against the Las Vegas 51s (Jays affiliate) and showcased two pitchers at opposite ends of their professional careers.

The past: Jamie Moyer won’t stop believing.

Jamie Moyer, the former Mariners ace, signed a minor league contract with the Las Vegas 51s this week. The agreement suggests that the Jays will decide whether to promote Moyer (or not) after two triple-A starts.

At 49, Moyer is by far the oldest member of the 51s. He is being considered because the Jays starting rotation has been decimated by a combination of injury and mediocre performance. After being released by the Colorado Rockies and Baltimore Orioles earlier this season, Moyer still aims to compete at the sports the highest level. His quest to return to the majors brought Moyer back to a market he once owned.

During his time in Seattle, Moyer led the team both on and off the field. In the 2001 season, Moyer was a 20-win anchor for a pitching staff that won a record 116 games. As a leader in the community, the Moyer Foundation has remained active in the region long after the pitcher ended his Mariners tenure.

Thursday was, in a way, a return home for the soft-tossing lefty, who is clearly still loved in the Pacific Northwest. The last time Moyer made a start in Tacoma was during a 1997 rehab assignment with the Rainiers. On Thursday, Moyer received roaring applause from the sellout crowd as he walked in from the bullpen before the game. The pitcher appropriately tipped his cap to the crowd acknowledging the fans appreciation.

Once the game started, Moyer displayed his varied arsenal of slow, slower and slowest pitches. He topped out at 84 mph, but sat comfortably between 70 and 80 mph for much of the game. After running into trouble in the first two innings, Moyer settled down and blanked the Rainiers over the next three. He exited after throwing 82 pitches, 51 of them for strikes and handed off a 7-3 lead.

It was by no means a dominating performance and the end is clearly nearing for Moyer. The only question is whether the former Mariner can throw father time a change-up to earn one more major league ride.

The future: Danny Hultzen rises.

Moyer’s opponent on Thursday was young Danny Hultzen, the second overall pick in the 2011 MLB draft who was making his first home start for the Rainiers.

After blazing through the AA ranks earlier this season, Hultzen has been pegged as a future number two starter for the Mariners behind Hernandez. The pitcher may have found the game particularly unnerving facing such an accomplished opponent. By the time Hultzen was born in the fall of 1989, Moyer had already made 94 starts in the major leagues. For further context, it should be noted that Thursday was not the first time the two pitchers had crossed paths.

When Hultzen led his University of Virginia team to the 2011 college world series, none other than one Jamie Moyer was serving as an analyst for ESPN. Moyer’s analysis was not entirely flattering and focused on the prospects need to develop his complementary pitches and his inability to hold runners on base. Fair or not, the comments were surely not forgotten before the game last night.

Against the 51s, Hultzen was consistently hitting 92-93 mph, but struggled mightily with his control, walking in a run during the second inning. The command problems are particularly surprising for the lefty and in sharp contrast to the tight control he displayed in college, Arizona fall league and AA.

Hultzen left after four innings, 90 pitches and with a 3-1 lead. His stuff was impressive, but he may require more time to harness it at the next level. Still, Hultzen looks like a star in waiting and is certainly a key to the Mariners future.

Three pitchers thinking about tomorrow.

Like ships in the night, the three pitchers passed one another Thursday as they each pursue their major league dreams. Each has built an impressive list of past accomplishments, each has designs on future professional glory and each lives in the present just trying to get the next out.

Notes: Shortstop Nick Franklin played second base and third baseman Alex Liddi played first. A possibly interesting development considering the continued struggles of Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak with the big club.

Nick Franklin

Nick Franklin

Comments

comments

Posted in Baseball, News | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Mariners fans still waiting for a hero

In 2008, a group led by Clay Bennett ripped the Supersonics from Seattle to search for browner pastures in Oklahoma City. It is rumored that during the move they took Seattle’s baseball team with them. The Mariners have finished last in the AL West in three of the past four seasons, while finishing next to last in the other. After committing in earnest to a rebuilding effort with a cohort of promising young players, the 2012 Mariners again find themselves in the West’s basement. The team, its players and their fans are again left searching for answers.

 

Safety not guaranteed: no home field advantage.

With the season nearing the halfway mark, one alarming truth has emerged for the 2012 Mariners – they struggle to win at home. At 12-19 (.387), the Mariners currently hold the worst home winning percentage in baseball. The most obvious problem appears to be rooted in the team’s inability to score runs on their home turf. Over the past month, Safeco Field has been a house of horrors for the Mariners where they score a mere 2.8 runs per game while allowing 3.9 runs against. On the road, however, the Mariners have scored 5.2 runs per game while allowing a comparable 5.3 runs (throwing out the crazy 21 run outburst the Mariners had against Texas on May 30). Although opponents do tend to score less at Safeco Field, the large outfield and thick marine air appear to be getting into the heads of some of the Mariners young hitters. Justin Smoak, expected to be a heart of the order masher, has shown outward signs of frustration both on the field and during recent post-game interviews. Things have gotten so bad that talk around Seattle now centres around whether the Mariners should bring the fences in during the offseason. Until the team starts making it tough for opposing pitchers to come through Seattle, they will remain an easy out in the West.

Looking for a leadoff hitter… Buehler? Buehler?

For over a decade, Seattle managers have penciled Ichiroin at top of the lineup and went from there. But this offseason the Mariners superstar was asked to bat third, allowing Chone Figgins, Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders to audition for the leadoff spot. Things were so bad at one point that manager Eric Wedge had CATCHER John Jaso leading off for a game. By May, Ichiro was struggling mightily with runners in scoring position and Kyle Seager had emerged as a clutch hitter (24 RBI with 2 outs), so the team moved their veteran outfielder back to his customary leadoff position. Unfortunately, this is not the 2001 version of Ichiro, but rather a 38 year old outfielder sporting a 0.282 on base percentage. It appears the sun is finally setting on Suzuki’s all-star career and the Mariners now need to find a long-term solution to fill the top of their order.

We Are Young, but this is not Fun.

Seattle fans entered the season understanding that any rebuilding plan requires above all else, patience. The core of the team is clearly talented, but the growing pains have been overwhelming with no guarantee that any of them are future franchise players. Smoak started the season as the cleanup hitter, but he struggled early and was batting an ugly 0.183 on the “Smoakamotive” promotion night. He has raised his average to 0.218, but his inability to power balls out of Safeco Field has led to frustrated comments such as this,

“You go up there and you try to put yourself in the best position to succeed. And you hit a ball like that and it goes nowhere.”

Thus far, results from the other youngsters have been a mixed bag. Michael Saunders and Jesus Montero have hit for a 0.270 average, Kyle Seager 0.256, Dustin Ackley 0.247 and Mike Carp 0.157. As the losses began to pile up, and with the veterans unable to right the offense, the younger players on the team started to play with an air of desperation. For example, Montero may be the slowest player in the MLB, and yet he has been caught three times in recent games as a result of overly aggressive running errors. These gaffes emerge because the young catcher is pushing himself beyond his natural game in hopes of helping the struggling offense. If the veterans on the team cannot provide some cover for these talented youngsters, this will be a painful season with periods of regression and long hitting droughts.

The slow progression of so many young prospects has been all the more painful when compared to other rookies that are successfully making adjustments on more stable rosters (e.g., Bryce Harper hitting 0.294 and Brett Lawrie 0.286). Most alarming, however, is that the resurgent Los Angeles Angels are being led by youngster Mark Trumbo (0.321) and phenom outfielder Mike Trout (0.324). For a Mariners team committed to rebuilding with youth, it looks very much like they are being passed by a divisional rival that is simply reloading.

The Seattle fans that rallied to bring back their beloved Sonics last week are evidence that in sports, there are always second acts. For the young Mariners, there is much baseball left to be played this season and their fans will continue to wait for a hero.

Hultzen

It’s fast approaching the time to bring in Danny Hultzen.

 

 

Comments

comments

Posted in Baseball, News | Tagged | Leave a comment