Robinson Cano – predicting 5 year performance?
With a major rebuild of the Seattle Mariners roster underway this offseason, a significant trade involving Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano seems imminent. Negotiations with the New York Mets appear to involve pairing Diaz as a top flight closer under favorable team control with Cano, who is still owed $the 120 million left on his 10-year contract. Assuming Can waives his no-trade clause, the Mets will add a player who hit .303/.374/.471 with 10 home run over 80 games in 2018. However, the other 80 games were spent suspended after testing positive for a banned substance.
Cano isn’t entirely dead money as a 36 year-old , but the question is just how much he will be able to contribute on the field and for how long.
This seems like a good time to update a graph we plotted in 2016 (Felix, Cano & Cruz: As good as ever or closing windows?). Cano was playing well before the suspension and still put up a 3.1 WAR over 80 games, so would he have delivered something closer to a 6 WAR?
When the Mariners signed Cano as a 31 year old, the back half of the contract was always assumed to be cost for good performance expected in the first 5 years.The Mariners needed to overpay to jolt the team and help with future free agent signings (e.g., Nelson Cruz). In 2019, the Mets are making the same trade-off, but with less upside and considerable more risk on the downside. From the graph above, it could be argued that Cano has already experienced the sharp dropoff in production that most second-basemen go through in their late thirties. However, the suspension complicates things because Cano looked to be having a bounce back year before and after his ban. So, the amount of risk the Mets are taking on is difficult to predict as one can look at Cano’s future performance through a dramatically positive or negative lens. Adding to such a complex prediction is the degree to which the Mets will need Diaz to maintain his dominance to justify the trade. All of this makes the Mets roster a compelling watch next season.
MARINERS OFFSEASON COMPLETED/PENDING TRADES
Mike Zunino and Guillermo Heredia <–> Mallex Smith (OF), and Jake Fraley (OF) from TBR)
James Paxton <–> Justus Sheffield (LHP), Dom Thompson-Williams (OF), and Erik Swanson (RHP) from NYY
Alex Colome <–> Omar Narvaez (C) from CWS
Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano <–> Jay Bruce (OF), Anthony Swarzak (RHP), Jarred Kelenic (OF), Justin Dunn (RP), and Gerson Bautist (RHP) from NYM
Jean Segura <–> J.P. Crawford (INF) from PHI